{
    "component_analyzed": "runoff",
    "baseline_methods": {
        "Rational Method": {
            "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)",
            "reference": "Classical rational method"
        },
        "Curve Number": {
            "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75",
            "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service"
        },
        "Simple Balance": {
            "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)",
            "reference": "Basic hydrological equation"
        },
        "Persistence": {
            "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)",
            "reference": "Time series baseline"
        },
        "Moving Average": {
            "description": "7-day moving average",
            "reference": "Statistical baseline"
        }
    },
    "comparison_results": {
        "runoff": {
            "detailed_metrics": {
                "ML Model": {
                    "NSE": 1.0,
                    "R2": 1.0,
                    "PBIAS": 0.0,
                    "RMSE": 0.0,
                    "MAE": 0.0
                },
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE": -615.765999995555,
                    "R2": 0.020142389118645687,
                    "PBIAS": -84.95810548754118,
                    "RMSE": 0.557054167025267,
                    "MAE": 0.5379794526836069
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE": -34.9979133605957,
                    "R2": 0.36843326687812805,
                    "PBIAS": -2.509410858154297,
                    "RMSE": 0.13457855582237244,
                    "MAE": 0.09304521232843399
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE": -13.373411003433777,
                    "R2": 0.6603109670047936,
                    "PBIAS": -0.6083568343225787,
                    "RMSE": 0.0850388027349055,
                    "MAE": 0.05548958280006376
                }
            },
            "improvements": {
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                }
            },
            "average_improvement": null
        }
    },
    "validation_criteria": {
        "NSE_threshold": 0.5,
        "R2_threshold": 0.6,
        "PBIAS_threshold": 25,
        "reference": "Muletationa (2012)"
    },
    "conclusion": {
        "status": "INCONCLUSIVE",
        "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics"
    }
}