{
    "water_balance_validation": {
        "total_input_mm": 11.120078152198115,
        "total_output_mm": 556.9135131835938,
        "total_residual_mm": -545.7933739962394,
        "residual_pct": -4908.179299876161,
        "mean_daily_error_pct": -537863246.9989655,
        "max_daily_error_pct": 1030178356.1706543,
        "tolerance_pct": 5.0,
        "components": {
            "evapotranspiration_mm": 519.98779296875,
            "evapotranspiration_pct": 4676.116353246704,
            "runoff_mm": 36.96371078491211,
            "runoff_pct": 332.4051349189975,
            "storage_change_mm": -0.03801393508911133,
            "storage_change_pct": -0.3418495317103242
        },
        "pass_validation": false,
        "validation_note": "Using journal standard tolerance (5%) for physics-informed models"
    },
    "ml_model_validation": {
        "hydro_simulator": {
            "ML-Hydro-runoff": {
                "model_name": "ML-Hydro-runoff",
                "NSE": -0.254433274269104,
                "R2": 0.2499249130487442,
                "PBIAS": 44.19534683227539,
                "RMSE": 0.2921011447906494,
                "MAE": 0.2757793962955475,
                "status": "FAIL",
                "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY"
            },
            "ML-Hydro-infiltration": {
                "model_name": "ML-Hydro-infiltration",
                "NSE": -0.7273863554000854,
                "R2": 0.2231820672750473,
                "PBIAS": 59.4039192199707,
                "RMSE": 0.11717548966407776,
                "MAE": 0.10071655362844467,
                "status": "FAIL",
                "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY"
            },
            "ML-Hydro-percolation": {
                "model_name": "ML-Hydro-percolation",
                "NSE": 0.06809282302856445,
                "R2": 0.2819983661174774,
                "PBIAS": 22.105018615722656,
                "RMSE": 0.006651109550148249,
                "MAE": 0.006560525856912136,
                "status": "FAIL",
                "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "pbias_interpretation": "SATISFACTORY"
            },
            "ML-Hydro-baseflow": {
                "model_name": "ML-Hydro-baseflow",
                "NSE": -0.44140028953552246,
                "R2": 0.27104613184928894,
                "PBIAS": 52.67829895019531,
                "RMSE": 0.0009492324898019433,
                "MAE": 0.0008546432363800704,
                "status": "FAIL",
                "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY"
            },
            "ML-Hydro-reservoir": {
                "model_name": "ML-Hydro-reservoir",
                "NSE": -0.7567020654678345,
                "R2": 0.16353435814380646,
                "PBIAS": -9.143671035766602,
                "RMSE": 0.008633445017039776,
                "MAE": 0.007996965199708939,
                "status": "FAIL",
                "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD"
            },
            "ML-Hydro-soil_storage": {
                "model_name": "ML-Hydro-soil_storage",
                "NSE": -0.12284970283508301,
                "R2": 0.181235671043396,
                "PBIAS": 25.881698608398438,
                "RMSE": 0.06605556607246399,
                "MAE": 0.06465965509414673,
                "status": "FAIL",
                "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY"
            },
            "ML-Hydro-aquifer": {
                "model_name": "ML-Hydro-aquifer",
                "NSE": -0.3231598138809204,
                "R2": 0.21617430448532104,
                "PBIAS": 36.84403991699219,
                "RMSE": 0.0332639217376709,
                "MAE": 0.031490568071603775,
                "status": "FAIL",
                "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY"
            },
            "ML Model": {
                "model_name": "ML Model",
                "NSE": 1.0,
                "R2": 1.0,
                "PBIAS": 0.0,
                "RMSE": 0.0,
                "MAE": 0.0,
                "status": "PASS",
                "nse_interpretation": "VERY GOOD",
                "r2_interpretation": "EXCELLENT",
                "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD"
            },
            "Rational Method": {
                "model_name": "Rational Method",
                "NSE": -615.765999995555,
                "R2": 0.020142389118645687,
                "PBIAS": -84.95810548754118,
                "RMSE": 0.557054167025267,
                "MAE": 0.5379794526836069,
                "status": "FAIL",
                "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY"
            },
            "Persistence": {
                "model_name": "Persistence",
                "NSE": -34.9979133605957,
                "R2": 0.36843326687812805,
                "PBIAS": -2.509410858154297,
                "RMSE": 0.13457855582237244,
                "MAE": 0.09304521232843399,
                "status": "FAIL",
                "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD"
            },
            "Moving Average": {
                "model_name": "Moving Average",
                "NSE": -13.373411003433777,
                "R2": 0.6603109670047936,
                "PBIAS": -0.6083568343225787,
                "RMSE": 0.0850388027349055,
                "MAE": 0.05548958280006376,
                "status": "FAIL",
                "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY",
                "r2_interpretation": "SATISFACTORY",
                "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD"
            }
        }
    },
    "validation_summary": {
        "total_components_validated": 7,
        "components_passed": 0,
        "components_marginal": 0,
        "components_failed": 7,
        "average_NSE": -0.3654055254799979,
        "average_R2": 0.22672797313758306,
        "average_PBIAS": 35.750284739903044
    },
    "baseline_comparison": {
        "component_analyzed": "runoff",
        "baseline_methods": {
            "Rational Method": {
                "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)",
                "reference": "Classical rational method"
            },
            "Curve Number": {
                "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75",
                "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service"
            },
            "Simple Balance": {
                "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)",
                "reference": "Basic hydrological equation"
            },
            "Persistence": {
                "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)",
                "reference": "Time series baseline"
            },
            "Moving Average": {
                "description": "7-day moving average",
                "reference": "Statistical baseline"
            }
        },
        "comparison_results": {
            "runoff": {
                "detailed_metrics": {
                    "ML Model": {
                        "NSE": 1.0,
                        "R2": 1.0,
                        "PBIAS": 0.0,
                        "RMSE": 0.0,
                        "MAE": 0.0
                    },
                    "Rational Method": {
                        "NSE": -615.765999995555,
                        "R2": 0.020142389118645687,
                        "PBIAS": -84.95810548754118,
                        "RMSE": 0.557054167025267,
                        "MAE": 0.5379794526836069
                    },
                    "Persistence": {
                        "NSE": -34.9979133605957,
                        "R2": 0.36843326687812805,
                        "PBIAS": -2.509410858154297,
                        "RMSE": 0.13457855582237244,
                        "MAE": 0.09304521232843399
                    },
                    "Moving Average": {
                        "NSE": -13.373411003433777,
                        "R2": 0.6603109670047936,
                        "PBIAS": -0.6083568343225787,
                        "RMSE": 0.0850388027349055,
                        "MAE": 0.05548958280006376
                    }
                },
                "improvements": {
                    "Rational Method": {
                        "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                        "R2_improvement_%": null,
                        "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                    },
                    "Persistence": {
                        "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                        "R2_improvement_%": null,
                        "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                    },
                    "Moving Average": {
                        "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                        "R2_improvement_%": null,
                        "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                    }
                },
                "average_improvement": null
            }
        },
        "validation_criteria": {
            "NSE_threshold": 0.5,
            "R2_threshold": 0.6,
            "PBIAS_threshold": 25,
            "reference": "Muletationa (2012)"
        },
        "conclusion": {
            "status": "INCONCLUSIVE",
            "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics"
        }
    }
}