{
    "component_analyzed": "runoff",
    "baseline_methods": {
        "Rational Method": {
            "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)",
            "reference": "Classical rational method"
        },
        "Curve Number": {
            "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75",
            "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service"
        },
        "Simple Balance": {
            "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)",
            "reference": "Basic hydrological equation"
        },
        "Persistence": {
            "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)",
            "reference": "Time series baseline"
        },
        "Moving Average": {
            "description": "7-day moving average",
            "reference": "Statistical baseline"
        }
    },
    "comparison_results": {
        "runoff": {
            "detailed_metrics": {
                "ML Model": {
                    "NSE": 1.0,
                    "R2": 1.0,
                    "PBIAS": 0.0,
                    "RMSE": 0.0,
                    "MAE": 0.0
                },
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE": -58664.2980771175,
                    "R2": 0.21817875619969238,
                    "PBIAS": 580.8170906084686,
                    "RMSE": 3.952275282663711,
                    "MAE": 2.552449639858735
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE": -638.5925732089128,
                    "R2": 0.003093155414685276,
                    "PBIAS": -93.92818112782813,
                    "RMSE": 0.41267508706006273,
                    "MAE": 0.4010890443296695
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE": -92145.69309772803,
                    "R2": 0.11963812907182735,
                    "PBIAS": 530.3014563446449,
                    "RMSE": 4.953320420729087,
                    "MAE": 2.5848368398653845
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE": -31.384063720703125,
                    "R2": 0.01645691692829132,
                    "PBIAS": -2.6052980422973633,
                    "RMSE": 0.09285861998796463,
                    "MAE": 0.07492086291313171
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE": -18.800999966196187,
                    "R2": 0.03763551582453066,
                    "PBIAS": -2.6098295601721238,
                    "RMSE": 0.07261061363361225,
                    "MAE": 0.060375900083215056
                }
            },
            "improvements": {
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                }
            },
            "average_improvement": null
        }
    },
    "validation_criteria": {
        "NSE_threshold": 0.5,
        "R2_threshold": 0.6,
        "PBIAS_threshold": 25,
        "reference": "Muletationa (2012)"
    },
    "conclusion": {
        "status": "INCONCLUSIVE",
        "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics"
    }
}