{ "water_balance_validation": { "total_input_mm": 1916.2300416226944, "total_output_mm": 2153.784423828125, "total_residual_mm": -237.55413806480556, "residual_pct": -12.396953022594348, "mean_daily_error_pct": -35939506.93257157, "max_daily_error_pct": 846739578.2470703, "tolerance_pct": 5.0, "components": { "evapotranspiration_mm": 2013.9476318359375, "evapotranspiration_pct": 105.09947073632632, "runoff_mm": 140.73016357421875, "runoff_pct": 7.344116338717151, "storage_change_mm": -0.8935413360595703, "storage_change_pct": -0.04663017052498066 }, "pass_validation": false, "validation_note": "Using journal standard tolerance (5%) for physics-informed models" }, "ml_model_validation": { "hydro_simulator": { "ML-Hydro-runoff": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-runoff", "NSE": 0.031623005867004395, "R2": 0.06825613975524902, "PBIAS": -1.4676854610443115, "RMSE": 0.11348386108875275, "MAE": 0.09034295380115509, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-infiltration": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-infiltration", "NSE": -1.1053898334503174, "R2": 0.11505851149559021, "PBIAS": 6.917140483856201, "RMSE": 0.041040293872356415, "MAE": 0.02733948454260826, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-percolation": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-percolation", "NSE": 0.03394681215286255, "R2": 0.08568675071001053, "PBIAS": -1.2817699909210205, "RMSE": 0.476630836725235, "MAE": 0.42049506306648254, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-baseflow": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-baseflow", "NSE": 0.004134953022003174, "R2": 0.05845755338668823, "PBIAS": 8.047698020935059, "RMSE": 0.04973233491182327, "MAE": 0.04473152011632919, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-reservoir": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-reservoir", "NSE": -0.08117568492889404, "R2": 0.06826062500476837, "PBIAS": -6.085638999938965, "RMSE": 0.15750955045223236, "MAE": 0.11760390549898148, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-soil_storage": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-soil_storage", "NSE": -0.24509978294372559, "R2": 0.05206506699323654, "PBIAS": -7.121339321136475, "RMSE": 0.009216411970555782, "MAE": 0.00865334551781416, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-aquifer": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-aquifer", "NSE": -0.03309059143066406, "R2": 0.3761398196220398, "PBIAS": -11.590993881225586, "RMSE": 6.798883438110352, "MAE": 5.48540735244751, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "GOOD" }, "ML Model": { "model_name": "ML Model", "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0, "status": "PASS", "nse_interpretation": "VERY GOOD", "r2_interpretation": "EXCELLENT", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "Rational Method": { "model_name": "Rational Method", "NSE": -58664.2980771175, "R2": 0.21817875619969238, "PBIAS": 580.8170906084686, "RMSE": 3.952275282663711, "MAE": 2.552449639858735, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Curve Number": { "model_name": "Curve Number", "NSE": -638.5925732089128, "R2": 0.003093155414685276, "PBIAS": -93.92818112782813, "RMSE": 0.41267508706006273, "MAE": 0.4010890443296695, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Simple Balance": { "model_name": "Simple Balance", "NSE": -92145.69309772803, "R2": 0.11963812907182735, "PBIAS": 530.3014563446449, "RMSE": 4.953320420729087, "MAE": 2.5848368398653845, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Persistence": { "model_name": "Persistence", "NSE": -31.384063720703125, "R2": 0.01645691692829132, "PBIAS": -2.6052980422973633, "RMSE": 0.09285861998796463, "MAE": 0.07492086291313171, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "Moving Average": { "model_name": "Moving Average", "NSE": -18.800999966196187, "R2": 0.03763551582453066, "PBIAS": -2.6098295601721238, "RMSE": 0.07261061363361225, "MAE": 0.060375900083215056, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" } } }, "validation_summary": { "total_components_validated": 7, "components_passed": 0, "components_marginal": 0, "components_failed": 7, "average_NSE": -0.19929301738739014, "average_R2": 0.11770349528108325, "average_PBIAS": 6.073180879865374 }, "baseline_comparison": { "component_analyzed": "runoff", "baseline_methods": { "Rational Method": { "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)", "reference": "Classical rational method" }, "Curve Number": { "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75", "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service" }, "Simple Balance": { "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)", "reference": "Basic hydrological equation" }, "Persistence": { "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)", "reference": "Time series baseline" }, "Moving Average": { "description": "7-day moving average", "reference": "Statistical baseline" } }, "comparison_results": { "runoff": { "detailed_metrics": { "ML Model": { "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0 }, "Rational Method": { "NSE": -58664.2980771175, "R2": 0.21817875619969238, "PBIAS": 580.8170906084686, "RMSE": 3.952275282663711, "MAE": 2.552449639858735 }, "Curve Number": { "NSE": -638.5925732089128, "R2": 0.003093155414685276, "PBIAS": -93.92818112782813, "RMSE": 0.41267508706006273, "MAE": 0.4010890443296695 }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE": -92145.69309772803, "R2": 0.11963812907182735, "PBIAS": 530.3014563446449, "RMSE": 4.953320420729087, "MAE": 2.5848368398653845 }, "Persistence": { "NSE": -31.384063720703125, "R2": 0.01645691692829132, "PBIAS": -2.6052980422973633, "RMSE": 0.09285861998796463, "MAE": 0.07492086291313171 }, "Moving Average": { "NSE": -18.800999966196187, "R2": 0.03763551582453066, "PBIAS": -2.6098295601721238, "RMSE": 0.07261061363361225, "MAE": 0.060375900083215056 } }, "improvements": { "Rational Method": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Curve Number": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Persistence": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Moving Average": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" } }, "average_improvement": null } }, "validation_criteria": { "NSE_threshold": 0.5, "R2_threshold": 0.6, "PBIAS_threshold": 25, "reference": "Muletationa (2012)" }, "conclusion": { "status": "INCONCLUSIVE", "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics" } } }