{
    "component_analyzed": "runoff",
    "baseline_methods": {
        "Rational Method": {
            "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)",
            "reference": "Classical rational method"
        },
        "Curve Number": {
            "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75",
            "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service"
        },
        "Simple Balance": {
            "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)",
            "reference": "Basic hydrological equation"
        },
        "Persistence": {
            "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)",
            "reference": "Time series baseline"
        },
        "Moving Average": {
            "description": "7-day moving average",
            "reference": "Statistical baseline"
        }
    },
    "comparison_results": {
        "runoff": {
            "detailed_metrics": {
                "ML Model": {
                    "NSE": 1.0,
                    "R2": 1.0,
                    "PBIAS": 0.0,
                    "RMSE": 0.0,
                    "MAE": 0.0
                },
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE": -992.6083629959834,
                    "R2": 0.02137165032257016,
                    "PBIAS": 281.6284631647769,
                    "RMSE": 5.45651076316226,
                    "MAE": 3.784261674305635
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE": -47.30346668538305,
                    "R2": 0.004534599798664324,
                    "PBIAS": -86.51872581843959,
                    "RMSE": 1.2030856520366495,
                    "MAE": 1.1069135570608886
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE": -2317.534240910094,
                    "R2": 0.023276695629987156,
                    "PBIAS": 344.1448572595664,
                    "RMSE": 8.33516409312762,
                    "MAE": 4.974869922767562
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE": -36.943660736083984,
                    "R2": 0.03666027635335922,
                    "PBIAS": -18.986949920654297,
                    "RMSE": 1.0662940740585327,
                    "MAE": 0.9736733436584473
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE": -20.013371160225805,
                    "R2": 0.05541518544154285,
                    "PBIAS": -19.00190286507854,
                    "RMSE": 0.7935152231493282,
                    "MAE": 0.7021718770602
                }
            },
            "improvements": {
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                }
            },
            "average_improvement": null
        }
    },
    "validation_criteria": {
        "NSE_threshold": 0.5,
        "R2_threshold": 0.6,
        "PBIAS_threshold": 25,
        "reference": "Muletationa (2012)"
    },
    "conclusion": {
        "status": "INCONCLUSIVE",
        "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics"
    }
}