{ "water_balance_validation": { "total_input_mm": 31180.047566421053, "total_output_mm": 26092.1484375, "total_residual_mm": 5087.8971757960535, "residual_pct": 16.317797992314155, "mean_daily_error_pct": -93455846.56823142, "max_daily_error_pct": 1194148731.2316895, "tolerance_pct": 5.0, "components": { "evapotranspiration_mm": 22008.044921875, "evapotranspiration_pct": 70.58374389901918, "runoff_mm": 4085.13134765625, "runoff_pct": 13.101748286156173, "storage_change_mm": -1.02557373046875, "storage_change_pct": -0.00328919873609567 }, "pass_validation": false, "validation_note": "Using journal standard tolerance (5%) for physics-informed models" }, "ml_model_validation": { "hydro_simulator": { "ML-Hydro-runoff": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-runoff", "NSE": -0.125707745552063, "R2": 0.07047442346811295, "PBIAS": 43.87989044189453, "RMSE": 1.1256823539733887, "MAE": 1.0636014938354492, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-infiltration": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-infiltration", "NSE": 0.08854752779006958, "R2": 0.266364723443985, "PBIAS": 1.605923056602478, "RMSE": 0.0960046574473381, "MAE": 0.07352116703987122, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-percolation": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-percolation", "NSE": -12.604432106018066, "R2": 0.11682552099227905, "PBIAS": 364.4666748046875, "RMSE": 0.7937164306640625, "MAE": 0.7590977549552917, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-baseflow": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-baseflow", "NSE": -18.81368064880371, "R2": 0.15327127277851105, "PBIAS": 438.2026672363281, "RMSE": 0.10331552475690842, "MAE": 0.10044979304075241, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-reservoir": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-reservoir", "NSE": -0.8782252073287964, "R2": 0.037993792444467545, "PBIAS": -3.94931960105896, "RMSE": 1.8863906860351562, "MAE": 1.6777700185775757, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-soil_storage": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-soil_storage", "NSE": -0.1770763397216797, "R2": 0.032185811549425125, "PBIAS": -33.05012893676758, "RMSE": 6.579624459845945e-05, "MAE": 6.260103691602126e-05, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-aquifer": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-aquifer", "NSE": -1.1808462142944336, "R2": 0.008112785406410694, "PBIAS": -4.748394966125488, "RMSE": 28.64681053161621, "MAE": 25.86701774597168, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML Model": { "model_name": "ML Model", "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0, "status": "PASS", "nse_interpretation": "VERY GOOD", "r2_interpretation": "EXCELLENT", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "Rational Method": { "model_name": "Rational Method", "NSE": -992.6083629959834, "R2": 0.02137165032257016, "PBIAS": 281.6284631647769, "RMSE": 5.45651076316226, "MAE": 3.784261674305635, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Curve Number": { "model_name": "Curve Number", "NSE": -47.30346668538305, "R2": 0.004534599798664324, "PBIAS": -86.51872581843959, "RMSE": 1.2030856520366495, "MAE": 1.1069135570608886, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Simple Balance": { "model_name": "Simple Balance", "NSE": -2317.534240910094, "R2": 0.023276695629987156, "PBIAS": 344.1448572595664, "RMSE": 8.33516409312762, "MAE": 4.974869922767562, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Persistence": { "model_name": "Persistence", "NSE": -36.943660736083984, "R2": 0.03666027635335922, "PBIAS": -18.986949920654297, "RMSE": 1.0662940740585327, "MAE": 0.9736733436584473, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "SATISFACTORY" }, "Moving Average": { "model_name": "Moving Average", "NSE": -20.013371160225805, "R2": 0.05541518544154285, "PBIAS": -19.00190286507854, "RMSE": 0.7935152231493282, "MAE": 0.7021718770602, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "SATISFACTORY" } } }, "validation_summary": { "total_components_validated": 7, "components_passed": 0, "components_marginal": 0, "components_failed": 7, "average_NSE": -4.813060104846954, "average_R2": 0.09788976144045591, "average_PBIAS": 127.12899986335209 }, "baseline_comparison": { "component_analyzed": "runoff", "baseline_methods": { "Rational Method": { "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)", "reference": "Classical rational method" }, "Curve Number": { "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75", "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service" }, "Simple Balance": { "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)", "reference": "Basic hydrological equation" }, "Persistence": { "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)", "reference": "Time series baseline" }, "Moving Average": { "description": "7-day moving average", "reference": "Statistical baseline" } }, "comparison_results": { "runoff": { "detailed_metrics": { "ML Model": { "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0 }, "Rational Method": { "NSE": -992.6083629959834, "R2": 0.02137165032257016, "PBIAS": 281.6284631647769, "RMSE": 5.45651076316226, "MAE": 3.784261674305635 }, "Curve Number": { "NSE": -47.30346668538305, "R2": 0.004534599798664324, "PBIAS": -86.51872581843959, "RMSE": 1.2030856520366495, "MAE": 1.1069135570608886 }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE": -2317.534240910094, "R2": 0.023276695629987156, "PBIAS": 344.1448572595664, "RMSE": 8.33516409312762, "MAE": 4.974869922767562 }, "Persistence": { "NSE": -36.943660736083984, "R2": 0.03666027635335922, "PBIAS": -18.986949920654297, "RMSE": 1.0662940740585327, "MAE": 0.9736733436584473 }, "Moving Average": { "NSE": -20.013371160225805, "R2": 0.05541518544154285, "PBIAS": -19.00190286507854, "RMSE": 0.7935152231493282, "MAE": 0.7021718770602 } }, "improvements": { "Rational Method": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Curve Number": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Persistence": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Moving Average": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" } }, "average_improvement": null } }, "validation_criteria": { "NSE_threshold": 0.5, "R2_threshold": 0.6, "PBIAS_threshold": 25, "reference": "Muletationa (2012)" }, "conclusion": { "status": "INCONCLUSIVE", "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics" } } }