{
    "component_analyzed": "runoff",
    "baseline_methods": {
        "Rational Method": {
            "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)",
            "reference": "Classical rational method"
        },
        "Curve Number": {
            "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75",
            "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service"
        },
        "Simple Balance": {
            "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)",
            "reference": "Basic hydrological equation"
        },
        "Persistence": {
            "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)",
            "reference": "Time series baseline"
        },
        "Moving Average": {
            "description": "7-day moving average",
            "reference": "Statistical baseline"
        }
    },
    "comparison_results": {
        "runoff": {
            "detailed_metrics": {
                "ML Model": {
                    "NSE": 1.0,
                    "R2": 1.0,
                    "PBIAS": 0.0,
                    "RMSE": 0.0,
                    "MAE": 0.0
                },
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE": -193485.84760879827,
                    "R2": 0.09843589400387813,
                    "PBIAS": 553.7553580716412,
                    "RMSE": 3.6664241547627445,
                    "MAE": 2.1248350985524187
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE": -1520.507383681425,
                    "R2": 0.0003014573554469451,
                    "PBIAS": -92.34315043150319,
                    "RMSE": 0.3251277309290917,
                    "MAE": 0.31975610296342083
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE": -201575.90549178503,
                    "R2": 0.022925097669163702,
                    "PBIAS": 372.2153058495224,
                    "RMSE": 3.7422893863336313,
                    "MAE": 1.6926864381278
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE": -41.708221435546875,
                    "R2": 0.0024654327426105738,
                    "PBIAS": 4.586919784545898,
                    "RMSE": 0.054471924901008606,
                    "MAE": 0.039427801966667175
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE": -13.483872451536223,
                    "R2": 0.14048171728401396,
                    "PBIAS": 4.972091324410156,
                    "RMSE": 0.031721909865886244,
                    "MAE": 0.02570123018330129
                }
            },
            "improvements": {
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                }
            },
            "average_improvement": null
        }
    },
    "validation_criteria": {
        "NSE_threshold": 0.5,
        "R2_threshold": 0.6,
        "PBIAS_threshold": 25,
        "reference": "Muletationa (2012)"
    },
    "conclusion": {
        "status": "INCONCLUSIVE",
        "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics"
    }
}