{ "water_balance_validation": { "total_input_mm": 311.6677633731767, "total_output_mm": 589.2465209960938, "total_residual_mm": -277.57875762291707, "residual_pct": -89.06238958392272, "mean_daily_error_pct": -372107123.6821753, "max_daily_error_pct": 920274257.6599121, "tolerance_pct": 5.0, "components": { "evapotranspiration_mm": 565.4059448242188, "evapotranspiration_pct": 181.41303377187188, "runoff_mm": 23.836727142333984, "runoff_pct": 7.648120833656121, "storage_change_mm": 0.0038429200649261475, "storage_change_pct": 0.001233018141925962 }, "pass_validation": false, "validation_note": "Using journal standard tolerance (5%) for physics-informed models" }, "ml_model_validation": { "hydro_simulator": { "ML-Hydro-runoff": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-runoff", "NSE": 0.039540648460388184, "R2": 0.5182631015777588, "PBIAS": 1.7201310396194458, "RMSE": 0.03821251168847084, "MAE": 0.03408967703580856, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-infiltration": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-infiltration", "NSE": -7.336616516113281, "R2": 0.2894749343395233, "PBIAS": 45.68811798095703, "RMSE": 0.11628599464893341, "MAE": 0.11032409220933914, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-percolation": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-percolation", "NSE": 0.05272728204727173, "R2": 0.5344349145889282, "PBIAS": 3.5171709060668945, "RMSE": 0.0026483137626200914, "MAE": 0.0023693558759987354, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-baseflow": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-baseflow", "NSE": 0.04606175422668457, "R2": 0.5228281021118164, "PBIAS": -0.12745290994644165, "RMSE": 0.00011615009134402499, "MAE": 0.00010160268720937893, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-reservoir": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-reservoir", "NSE": -5.494733810424805, "R2": 0.0410393625497818, "PBIAS": -33.68131637573242, "RMSE": 0.02301625907421112, "MAE": 0.02109353058040142, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-soil_storage": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-soil_storage", "NSE": -344.21258544921875, "R2": 0.0036056535318493843, "PBIAS": -22.850255966186523, "RMSE": 0.013461432419717312, "MAE": 0.01343630626797676, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "SATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-aquifer": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-aquifer", "NSE": -0.9722292423248291, "R2": 0.09544175863265991, "PBIAS": -9.316615104675293, "RMSE": 0.03415773808956146, "MAE": 0.02425486594438553, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML Model": { "model_name": "ML Model", "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0, "status": "PASS", "nse_interpretation": "VERY GOOD", "r2_interpretation": "EXCELLENT", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "Rational Method": { "model_name": "Rational Method", "NSE": -193485.84760879827, "R2": 0.09843589400387813, "PBIAS": 553.7553580716412, "RMSE": 3.6664241547627445, "MAE": 2.1248350985524187, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Curve Number": { "model_name": "Curve Number", "NSE": -1520.507383681425, "R2": 0.0003014573554469451, "PBIAS": -92.34315043150319, "RMSE": 0.3251277309290917, "MAE": 0.31975610296342083, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Simple Balance": { "model_name": "Simple Balance", "NSE": -201575.90549178503, "R2": 0.022925097669163702, "PBIAS": 372.2153058495224, "RMSE": 3.7422893863336313, "MAE": 1.6926864381278, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Persistence": { "model_name": "Persistence", "NSE": -41.708221435546875, "R2": 0.0024654327426105738, "PBIAS": 4.586919784545898, "RMSE": 0.054471924901008606, "MAE": 0.039427801966667175, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "Moving Average": { "model_name": "Moving Average", "NSE": -13.483872451536223, "R2": 0.14048171728401396, "PBIAS": 4.972091324410156, "RMSE": 0.031721909865886244, "MAE": 0.02570123018330129, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" } } }, "validation_summary": { "total_components_validated": 7, "components_passed": 0, "components_marginal": 0, "components_failed": 7, "average_NSE": -51.125405047621044, "average_R2": 0.28644111819033113, "average_PBIAS": 16.70015146902629 }, "baseline_comparison": { "component_analyzed": "runoff", "baseline_methods": { "Rational Method": { "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)", "reference": "Classical rational method" }, "Curve Number": { "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75", "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service" }, "Simple Balance": { "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)", "reference": "Basic hydrological equation" }, "Persistence": { "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)", "reference": "Time series baseline" }, "Moving Average": { "description": "7-day moving average", "reference": "Statistical baseline" } }, "comparison_results": { "runoff": { "detailed_metrics": { "ML Model": { "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0 }, "Rational Method": { "NSE": -193485.84760879827, "R2": 0.09843589400387813, "PBIAS": 553.7553580716412, "RMSE": 3.6664241547627445, "MAE": 2.1248350985524187 }, "Curve Number": { "NSE": -1520.507383681425, "R2": 0.0003014573554469451, "PBIAS": -92.34315043150319, "RMSE": 0.3251277309290917, "MAE": 0.31975610296342083 }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE": -201575.90549178503, "R2": 0.022925097669163702, "PBIAS": 372.2153058495224, "RMSE": 3.7422893863336313, "MAE": 1.6926864381278 }, "Persistence": { "NSE": -41.708221435546875, "R2": 0.0024654327426105738, "PBIAS": 4.586919784545898, "RMSE": 0.054471924901008606, "MAE": 0.039427801966667175 }, "Moving Average": { "NSE": -13.483872451536223, "R2": 0.14048171728401396, "PBIAS": 4.972091324410156, "RMSE": 0.031721909865886244, "MAE": 0.02570123018330129 } }, "improvements": { "Rational Method": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Curve Number": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Persistence": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Moving Average": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" } }, "average_improvement": null } }, "validation_criteria": { "NSE_threshold": 0.5, "R2_threshold": 0.6, "PBIAS_threshold": 25, "reference": "Muletationa (2012)" }, "conclusion": { "status": "INCONCLUSIVE", "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics" } } }