{
    "component_analyzed": "runoff",
    "baseline_methods": {
        "Rational Method": {
            "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)",
            "reference": "Classical rational method"
        },
        "Curve Number": {
            "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75",
            "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service"
        },
        "Simple Balance": {
            "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)",
            "reference": "Basic hydrological equation"
        },
        "Persistence": {
            "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)",
            "reference": "Time series baseline"
        },
        "Moving Average": {
            "description": "7-day moving average",
            "reference": "Statistical baseline"
        }
    },
    "comparison_results": {
        "runoff": {
            "detailed_metrics": {
                "ML Model": {
                    "NSE": 1.0,
                    "R2": 1.0,
                    "PBIAS": 0.0,
                    "RMSE": 0.0,
                    "MAE": 0.0
                },
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE": -213318.77371097394,
                    "R2": 0.18815912112953626,
                    "PBIAS": 873.2155455313259,
                    "RMSE": 3.7420438101269617,
                    "MAE": 2.1421508875177704
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE": -836.7574127094285,
                    "R2": 0.007976806055799196,
                    "PBIAS": -88.60159307687981,
                    "RMSE": 0.23450518533628703,
                    "MAE": 0.22289736613614636
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE": -232839.05989658885,
                    "R2": 0.08472507629608138,
                    "PBIAS": 623.578898768951,
                    "RMSE": 3.9095085001750896,
                    "MAE": 1.7016084851163824
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE": -73.58094024658203,
                    "R2": 0.07884283363819122,
                    "PBIAS": 17.922916412353516,
                    "RMSE": 0.06996925175189972,
                    "MAE": 0.052347224205732346
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE": -38.58912488741234,
                    "R2": 0.29695574073362374,
                    "PBIAS": 18.460802317073956,
                    "RMSE": 0.05097782023254869,
                    "MAE": 0.04125776974422357
                }
            },
            "improvements": {
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                }
            },
            "average_improvement": null
        }
    },
    "validation_criteria": {
        "NSE_threshold": 0.5,
        "R2_threshold": 0.6,
        "PBIAS_threshold": 25,
        "reference": "Muletationa (2012)"
    },
    "conclusion": {
        "status": "INCONCLUSIVE",
        "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics"
    }
}