{ "water_balance_validation": { "total_input_mm": 311.6677633731767, "total_output_mm": 565.2041015625, "total_residual_mm": -253.53627715416707, "residual_pct": -81.34825187248973, "mean_daily_error_pct": -355746687.4025357, "max_daily_error_pct": 864640331.2683105, "tolerance_pct": 5.0, "components": { "evapotranspiration_mm": 549.1910400390625, "evapotranspiration_pct": 176.21040883252542, "runoff_mm": 16.01226806640625, "runoff_pct": 5.137608039120137, "storage_change_mm": 0.0007439851760864258, "storage_change_pct": 0.0002387109812173972 }, "pass_validation": false, "validation_note": "Using journal standard tolerance (5%) for physics-informed models" }, "ml_model_validation": { "hydro_simulator": { "ML-Hydro-runoff": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-runoff", "NSE": 0.04558044672012329, "R2": 0.11130981892347336, "PBIAS": -2.837986469268799, "RMSE": 0.042623430490493774, "MAE": 0.02480454370379448, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-infiltration": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-infiltration", "NSE": -0.16074740886688232, "R2": 0.09578610956668854, "PBIAS": 7.378612995147705, "RMSE": 0.036762431263923645, "MAE": 0.031505610793828964, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-percolation": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-percolation", "NSE": -2.013718843460083, "R2": 0.11903560161590576, "PBIAS": 10.587848663330078, "RMSE": 0.001778682810254395, "MAE": 0.0016709539340808988, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-baseflow": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-baseflow", "NSE": 0.04947775602340698, "R2": 0.08874453604221344, "PBIAS": 1.3167924880981445, "RMSE": 0.0002726921811699867, "MAE": 0.00019673726637847722, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-reservoir": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-reservoir", "NSE": -5.246677398681641, "R2": 0.07925587147474289, "PBIAS": -31.525602340698242, "RMSE": 0.036522626876831055, "MAE": 0.03334677964448929, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-soil_storage": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-soil_storage", "NSE": -0.32680535316467285, "R2": 0.07047700881958008, "PBIAS": 10.647372245788574, "RMSE": 0.009155653417110443, "MAE": 0.007393988780677319, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-aquifer": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-aquifer", "NSE": -7.998546600341797, "R2": 0.04719196632504463, "PBIAS": -42.45633316040039, "RMSE": 0.15571600198745728, "MAE": 0.14640101790428162, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML Model": { "model_name": "ML Model", "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0, "status": "PASS", "nse_interpretation": "VERY GOOD", "r2_interpretation": "EXCELLENT", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "Rational Method": { "model_name": "Rational Method", "NSE": -213318.77371097394, "R2": 0.18815912112953626, "PBIAS": 873.2155455313259, "RMSE": 3.7420438101269617, "MAE": 2.1421508875177704, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Curve Number": { "model_name": "Curve Number", "NSE": -836.7574127094285, "R2": 0.007976806055799196, "PBIAS": -88.60159307687981, "RMSE": 0.23450518533628703, "MAE": 0.22289736613614636, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Simple Balance": { "model_name": "Simple Balance", "NSE": -232839.05989658885, "R2": 0.08472507629608138, "PBIAS": 623.578898768951, "RMSE": 3.9095085001750896, "MAE": 1.7016084851163824, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Persistence": { "model_name": "Persistence", "NSE": -73.58094024658203, "R2": 0.07884283363819122, "PBIAS": 17.922916412353516, "RMSE": 0.06996925175189972, "MAE": 0.052347224205732346, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "SATISFACTORY" }, "Moving Average": { "model_name": "Moving Average", "NSE": -38.58912488741234, "R2": 0.29695574073362374, "PBIAS": 18.460802317073956, "RMSE": 0.05097782023254869, "MAE": 0.04125776974422357, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "SATISFACTORY" } } }, "validation_summary": { "total_components_validated": 7, "components_passed": 0, "components_marginal": 0, "components_failed": 7, "average_NSE": -2.2359196288245067, "average_R2": 0.08740013039537839, "average_PBIAS": 15.250078337533134 }, "baseline_comparison": { "component_analyzed": "runoff", "baseline_methods": { "Rational Method": { "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)", "reference": "Classical rational method" }, "Curve Number": { "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75", "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service" }, "Simple Balance": { "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)", "reference": "Basic hydrological equation" }, "Persistence": { "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)", "reference": "Time series baseline" }, "Moving Average": { "description": "7-day moving average", "reference": "Statistical baseline" } }, "comparison_results": { "runoff": { "detailed_metrics": { "ML Model": { "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0 }, "Rational Method": { "NSE": -213318.77371097394, "R2": 0.18815912112953626, "PBIAS": 873.2155455313259, "RMSE": 3.7420438101269617, "MAE": 2.1421508875177704 }, "Curve Number": { "NSE": -836.7574127094285, "R2": 0.007976806055799196, "PBIAS": -88.60159307687981, "RMSE": 0.23450518533628703, "MAE": 0.22289736613614636 }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE": -232839.05989658885, "R2": 0.08472507629608138, "PBIAS": 623.578898768951, "RMSE": 3.9095085001750896, "MAE": 1.7016084851163824 }, "Persistence": { "NSE": -73.58094024658203, "R2": 0.07884283363819122, "PBIAS": 17.922916412353516, "RMSE": 0.06996925175189972, "MAE": 0.052347224205732346 }, "Moving Average": { "NSE": -38.58912488741234, "R2": 0.29695574073362374, "PBIAS": 18.460802317073956, "RMSE": 0.05097782023254869, "MAE": 0.04125776974422357 } }, "improvements": { "Rational Method": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Curve Number": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Persistence": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Moving Average": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" } }, "average_improvement": null } }, "validation_criteria": { "NSE_threshold": 0.5, "R2_threshold": 0.6, "PBIAS_threshold": 25, "reference": "Muletationa (2012)" }, "conclusion": { "status": "INCONCLUSIVE", "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics" } } }