{
    "component_analyzed": "runoff",
    "baseline_methods": {
        "Rational Method": {
            "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)",
            "reference": "Classical rational method"
        },
        "Curve Number": {
            "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75",
            "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service"
        },
        "Simple Balance": {
            "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)",
            "reference": "Basic hydrological equation"
        },
        "Persistence": {
            "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)",
            "reference": "Time series baseline"
        },
        "Moving Average": {
            "description": "7-day moving average",
            "reference": "Statistical baseline"
        }
    },
    "comparison_results": {
        "runoff": {
            "detailed_metrics": {
                "ML Model": {
                    "NSE": 1.0,
                    "R2": 1.0,
                    "PBIAS": 0.0,
                    "RMSE": 0.0,
                    "MAE": 0.0
                },
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE": -64903.38490049268,
                    "R2": 0.09177120306269641,
                    "PBIAS": 608.7615386071442,
                    "RMSE": 3.8471612936942723,
                    "MAE": 2.313774851317589
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE": -478.3500383641794,
                    "R2": 0.005648391577274427,
                    "PBIAS": -91.69890760083526,
                    "RMSE": 0.3306204850140929,
                    "MAE": 0.32470890150001763
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE": -64785.42856078424,
                    "R2": 0.06122663835090482,
                    "PBIAS": 402.0111650595082,
                    "RMSE": 3.8436638147960567,
                    "MAE": 1.804502107725939
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE": -16.29281997680664,
                    "R2": 0.03991793096065521,
                    "PBIAS": -8.60301685333252,
                    "RMSE": 0.06279662251472473,
                    "MAE": 0.052565209567546844
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE": -5.570583631941234,
                    "R2": 0.30862049968264976,
                    "PBIAS": -8.318437006750099,
                    "RMSE": 0.038708411488343,
                    "MAE": 0.031847724877695036
                }
            },
            "improvements": {
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                }
            },
            "average_improvement": null
        }
    },
    "validation_criteria": {
        "NSE_threshold": 0.5,
        "R2_threshold": 0.6,
        "PBIAS_threshold": 25,
        "reference": "Muletationa (2012)"
    },
    "conclusion": {
        "status": "INCONCLUSIVE",
        "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics"
    }
}