{ "water_balance_validation": { "total_input_mm": 311.6677633731767, "total_output_mm": 529.5859375, "total_residual_mm": -217.91817412682332, "residual_pct": -69.92002373562713, "mean_daily_error_pct": -321340646.5812789, "max_daily_error_pct": 948011112.2131348, "tolerance_pct": 5.0, "components": { "evapotranspiration_mm": 507.61627197265625, "evapotranspiration_pct": 162.87095799665997, "runoff_mm": 21.986785888671875, "runoff_pct": 7.05455888370011, "storage_change_mm": -0.017103910446166992, "storage_change_pct": -0.005487866393704489 }, "pass_validation": false, "validation_note": "Using journal standard tolerance (5%) for physics-informed models" }, "ml_model_validation": { "hydro_simulator": { "ML-Hydro-runoff": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-runoff", "NSE": -8.399396896362305, "R2": 0.014487069100141525, "PBIAS": 31.468338012695312, "RMSE": 0.08322039991617203, "MAE": 0.07836887985467911, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-infiltration": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-infiltration", "NSE": -9.175453186035156, "R2": 0.008280674926936626, "PBIAS": 35.9120979309082, "RMSE": 0.08692760765552521, "MAE": 0.08209782093763351, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-percolation": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-percolation", "NSE": -7.430444717407227, "R2": 0.01921074278652668, "PBIAS": 35.685306549072266, "RMSE": 0.006016783881932497, "MAE": 0.005638467613607645, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-baseflow": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-baseflow", "NSE": -3.8866448402404785, "R2": 0.04636823758482933, "PBIAS": -22.775671005249023, "RMSE": 0.0002588164643384516, "MAE": 0.00023435488401446491, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "SATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-reservoir": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-reservoir", "NSE": -1.655583143234253, "R2": 0.024169938638806343, "PBIAS": 12.656238555908203, "RMSE": 0.011860963888466358, "MAE": 0.010186856612563133, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-soil_storage": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-soil_storage", "NSE": -424.8675842285156, "R2": 0.04568330943584442, "PBIAS": -100.6266098022461, "RMSE": 0.11379245668649673, "MAE": 0.11361580342054367, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-aquifer": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-aquifer", "NSE": -0.7375799417495728, "R2": 9.657222835812718e-05, "PBIAS": 7.497566223144531, "RMSE": 0.03504633530974388, "MAE": 0.029467055574059486, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML Model": { "model_name": "ML Model", "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0, "status": "PASS", "nse_interpretation": "VERY GOOD", "r2_interpretation": "EXCELLENT", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "Rational Method": { "model_name": "Rational Method", "NSE": -64903.38490049268, "R2": 0.09177120306269641, "PBIAS": 608.7615386071442, "RMSE": 3.8471612936942723, "MAE": 2.313774851317589, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Curve Number": { "model_name": "Curve Number", "NSE": -478.3500383641794, "R2": 0.005648391577274427, "PBIAS": -91.69890760083526, "RMSE": 0.3306204850140929, "MAE": 0.32470890150001763, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Simple Balance": { "model_name": "Simple Balance", "NSE": -64785.42856078424, "R2": 0.06122663835090482, "PBIAS": 402.0111650595082, "RMSE": 3.8436638147960567, "MAE": 1.804502107725939, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Persistence": { "model_name": "Persistence", "NSE": -16.29281997680664, "R2": 0.03991793096065521, "PBIAS": -8.60301685333252, "RMSE": 0.06279662251472473, "MAE": 0.052565209567546844, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "Moving Average": { "model_name": "Moving Average", "NSE": -5.570583631941234, "R2": 0.30862049968264976, "PBIAS": -8.318437006750099, "RMSE": 0.038708411488343, "MAE": 0.031847724877695036, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" } } }, "validation_summary": { "total_components_validated": 7, "components_passed": 0, "components_marginal": 0, "components_failed": 7, "average_NSE": -65.16466956479209, "average_R2": 0.02261379210020615, "average_PBIAS": 35.231689725603374 }, "baseline_comparison": { "component_analyzed": "runoff", "baseline_methods": { "Rational Method": { "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)", "reference": "Classical rational method" }, "Curve Number": { "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75", "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service" }, "Simple Balance": { "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)", "reference": "Basic hydrological equation" }, "Persistence": { "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)", "reference": "Time series baseline" }, "Moving Average": { "description": "7-day moving average", "reference": "Statistical baseline" } }, "comparison_results": { "runoff": { "detailed_metrics": { "ML Model": { "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0 }, "Rational Method": { "NSE": -64903.38490049268, "R2": 0.09177120306269641, "PBIAS": 608.7615386071442, "RMSE": 3.8471612936942723, "MAE": 2.313774851317589 }, "Curve Number": { "NSE": -478.3500383641794, "R2": 0.005648391577274427, "PBIAS": -91.69890760083526, "RMSE": 0.3306204850140929, "MAE": 0.32470890150001763 }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE": -64785.42856078424, "R2": 0.06122663835090482, "PBIAS": 402.0111650595082, "RMSE": 3.8436638147960567, "MAE": 1.804502107725939 }, "Persistence": { "NSE": -16.29281997680664, "R2": 0.03991793096065521, "PBIAS": -8.60301685333252, "RMSE": 0.06279662251472473, "MAE": 0.052565209567546844 }, "Moving Average": { "NSE": -5.570583631941234, "R2": 0.30862049968264976, "PBIAS": -8.318437006750099, "RMSE": 0.038708411488343, "MAE": 0.031847724877695036 } }, "improvements": { "Rational Method": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Curve Number": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Persistence": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Moving Average": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" } }, "average_improvement": null } }, "validation_criteria": { "NSE_threshold": 0.5, "R2_threshold": 0.6, "PBIAS_threshold": 25, "reference": "Muletationa (2012)" }, "conclusion": { "status": "INCONCLUSIVE", "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics" } } }