{
    "component_analyzed": "runoff",
    "baseline_methods": {
        "Rational Method": {
            "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)",
            "reference": "Classical rational method"
        },
        "Curve Number": {
            "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75",
            "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service"
        },
        "Simple Balance": {
            "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)",
            "reference": "Basic hydrological equation"
        },
        "Persistence": {
            "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)",
            "reference": "Time series baseline"
        },
        "Moving Average": {
            "description": "7-day moving average",
            "reference": "Statistical baseline"
        }
    },
    "comparison_results": {
        "runoff": {
            "detailed_metrics": {
                "ML Model": {
                    "NSE": 1.0,
                    "R2": 1.0,
                    "PBIAS": 0.0,
                    "RMSE": 0.0,
                    "MAE": 0.0
                },
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE": -1554396.026993569,
                    "R2": 0.2178464802495699,
                    "PBIAS": 1999.6446401102735,
                    "RMSE": 3.966936463747972,
                    "MAE": 2.3193322977662496
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE": -2541.282679889659,
                    "R2": 0.010793217122543278,
                    "PBIAS": -75.40873677272951,
                    "RMSE": 0.16043022240013052,
                    "MAE": 0.12475513559873115
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE": -1566229.8759659063,
                    "R2": 0.10117273010502718,
                    "PBIAS": 1407.6603521318418,
                    "RMSE": 3.9820082621937423,
                    "MAE": 1.723443725071571
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE": -30.261730194091797,
                    "R2": 0.13394314050674438,
                    "PBIAS": 8.747281074523926,
                    "RMSE": 0.01779019646346569,
                    "MAE": 0.015636837109923363
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE": -16.50958533591313,
                    "R2": 0.16023624989236154,
                    "PBIAS": 8.294937102296252,
                    "RMSE": 0.013314111718752278,
                    "MAE": 0.01061260382503843
                }
            },
            "improvements": {
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                }
            },
            "average_improvement": null
        }
    },
    "validation_criteria": {
        "NSE_threshold": 0.5,
        "R2_threshold": 0.6,
        "PBIAS_threshold": 25,
        "reference": "Muletationa (2012)"
    },
    "conclusion": {
        "status": "INCONCLUSIVE",
        "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics"
    }
}