{ "water_balance_validation": { "total_input_mm": 311.6677633731767, "total_output_mm": 519.5330810546875, "total_residual_mm": -207.86537871666707, "residual_pct": -66.6945392320792, "mean_daily_error_pct": -318237982.9961455, "max_daily_error_pct": 953109169.0063477, "tolerance_pct": 5.0, "components": { "evapotranspiration_mm": 512.1189575195312, "evapotranspiration_pct": 164.31566485313513, "runoff_mm": 7.421916961669922, "runoff_pct": 2.3813553513981036, "storage_change_mm": -0.007760524749755859, "storage_change_pct": -0.002489999179178426 }, "pass_validation": false, "validation_note": "Using journal standard tolerance (5%) for physics-informed models" }, "ml_model_validation": { "hydro_simulator": { "ML-Hydro-runoff": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-runoff", "NSE": -109.39938354492188, "R2": 0.18742454051971436, "PBIAS": -14.107682228088379, "RMSE": 0.01769152469933033, "MAE": 0.017581192776560783, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-infiltration": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-infiltration", "NSE": -32.17634582519531, "R2": 0.01950155198574066, "PBIAS": 54.05926513671875, "RMSE": 0.12303096055984497, "MAE": 0.12085198611021042, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-percolation": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-percolation", "NSE": -2.069628953933716, "R2": 0.004356653429567814, "PBIAS": 18.20846939086914, "RMSE": 0.0031638473737984896, "MAE": 0.002706610830500722, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "SATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-baseflow": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-baseflow", "NSE": -1.119544267654419, "R2": 0.0048103309236466885, "PBIAS": 10.710309028625488, "RMSE": 0.00042169427615590394, "MAE": 0.00035933058825321496, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-reservoir": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-reservoir", "NSE": -2.1769537925720215, "R2": 0.004306356888264418, "PBIAS": -13.535920143127441, "RMSE": 0.01689009554684162, "MAE": 0.015049757435917854, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-soil_storage": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-soil_storage", "NSE": -2.274759292602539, "R2": 0.0035866082180291414, "PBIAS": 22.523000717163086, "RMSE": 0.010548272170126438, "MAE": 0.009506592527031898, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "SATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-aquifer": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-aquifer", "NSE": 0.019627273082733154, "R2": 0.05048974230885506, "PBIAS": -1.0763795375823975, "RMSE": 0.01796245388686657, "MAE": 0.011032631620764732, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML Model": { "model_name": "ML Model", "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0, "status": "PASS", "nse_interpretation": "VERY GOOD", "r2_interpretation": "EXCELLENT", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "Rational Method": { "model_name": "Rational Method", "NSE": -1554396.026993569, "R2": 0.2178464802495699, "PBIAS": 1999.6446401102735, "RMSE": 3.966936463747972, "MAE": 2.3193322977662496, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Curve Number": { "model_name": "Curve Number", "NSE": -2541.282679889659, "R2": 0.010793217122543278, "PBIAS": -75.40873677272951, "RMSE": 0.16043022240013052, "MAE": 0.12475513559873115, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Simple Balance": { "model_name": "Simple Balance", "NSE": -1566229.8759659063, "R2": 0.10117273010502718, "PBIAS": 1407.6603521318418, "RMSE": 3.9820082621937423, "MAE": 1.723443725071571, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Persistence": { "model_name": "Persistence", "NSE": -30.261730194091797, "R2": 0.13394314050674438, "PBIAS": 8.747281074523926, "RMSE": 0.01779019646346569, "MAE": 0.015636837109923363, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "Moving Average": { "model_name": "Moving Average", "NSE": -16.50958533591313, "R2": 0.16023624989236154, "PBIAS": 8.294937102296252, "RMSE": 0.013314111718752278, "MAE": 0.01061260382503843, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" } } }, "validation_summary": { "total_components_validated": 7, "components_passed": 0, "components_marginal": 0, "components_failed": 7, "average_NSE": -21.313855486256735, "average_R2": 0.03921082632483116, "average_PBIAS": 19.174432311739242 }, "baseline_comparison": { "component_analyzed": "runoff", "baseline_methods": { "Rational Method": { "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)", "reference": "Classical rational method" }, "Curve Number": { "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75", "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service" }, "Simple Balance": { "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)", "reference": "Basic hydrological equation" }, "Persistence": { "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)", "reference": "Time series baseline" }, "Moving Average": { "description": "7-day moving average", "reference": "Statistical baseline" } }, "comparison_results": { "runoff": { "detailed_metrics": { "ML Model": { "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0 }, "Rational Method": { "NSE": -1554396.026993569, "R2": 0.2178464802495699, "PBIAS": 1999.6446401102735, "RMSE": 3.966936463747972, "MAE": 2.3193322977662496 }, "Curve Number": { "NSE": -2541.282679889659, "R2": 0.010793217122543278, "PBIAS": -75.40873677272951, "RMSE": 0.16043022240013052, "MAE": 0.12475513559873115 }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE": -1566229.8759659063, "R2": 0.10117273010502718, "PBIAS": 1407.6603521318418, "RMSE": 3.9820082621937423, "MAE": 1.723443725071571 }, "Persistence": { "NSE": -30.261730194091797, "R2": 0.13394314050674438, "PBIAS": 8.747281074523926, "RMSE": 0.01779019646346569, "MAE": 0.015636837109923363 }, "Moving Average": { "NSE": -16.50958533591313, "R2": 0.16023624989236154, "PBIAS": 8.294937102296252, "RMSE": 0.013314111718752278, "MAE": 0.01061260382503843 } }, "improvements": { "Rational Method": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Curve Number": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Persistence": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Moving Average": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" } }, "average_improvement": null } }, "validation_criteria": { "NSE_threshold": 0.5, "R2_threshold": 0.6, "PBIAS_threshold": 25, "reference": "Muletationa (2012)" }, "conclusion": { "status": "INCONCLUSIVE", "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics" } } }