{
    "component_analyzed": "runoff",
    "baseline_methods": {
        "Rational Method": {
            "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)",
            "reference": "Classical rational method"
        },
        "Curve Number": {
            "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75",
            "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service"
        },
        "Simple Balance": {
            "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)",
            "reference": "Basic hydrological equation"
        },
        "Persistence": {
            "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)",
            "reference": "Time series baseline"
        },
        "Moving Average": {
            "description": "7-day moving average",
            "reference": "Statistical baseline"
        }
    },
    "comparison_results": {
        "runoff": {
            "detailed_metrics": {
                "ML Model": {
                    "NSE": 1.0,
                    "R2": 1.0,
                    "PBIAS": 0.0,
                    "RMSE": 0.0,
                    "MAE": 0.0
                },
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE": -9251.363795633126,
                    "R2": 0.14687764314570162,
                    "PBIAS": 236.60493526514696,
                    "RMSE": 3.66304582865918,
                    "MAE": 2.312931808860659
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE": -316.51875847772385,
                    "R2": 0.001270638030624127,
                    "PBIAS": -96.05764853303401,
                    "RMSE": 0.6785794381366356,
                    "MAE": 0.6738899160691937
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE": -9980.208214086626,
                    "R2": 0.05593247017904269,
                    "PBIAS": 143.20731409664035,
                    "RMSE": 3.804587350078826,
                    "MAE": 2.0149896574484245
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE": -29.852508544921875,
                    "R2": 0.04759080335497856,
                    "PBIAS": -26.497013092041016,
                    "RMSE": 0.21152476966381073,
                    "MAE": 0.19466134905815125
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE": -23.380950278663683,
                    "R2": 0.29788755324907745,
                    "PBIAS": -26.078420997234158,
                    "RMSE": 0.1880361351894224,
                    "MAE": 0.1801971411908359
                }
            },
            "improvements": {
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                }
            },
            "average_improvement": null
        }
    },
    "validation_criteria": {
        "NSE_threshold": 0.5,
        "R2_threshold": 0.6,
        "PBIAS_threshold": 25,
        "reference": "Muletationa (2012)"
    },
    "conclusion": {
        "status": "INCONCLUSIVE",
        "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics"
    }
}