{ "water_balance_validation": { "total_input_mm": 311.6677633731767, "total_output_mm": 558.3777465820312, "total_residual_mm": -246.70998320885457, "residual_pct": -79.15800483781679, "mean_daily_error_pct": -342595664.3751742, "max_daily_error_pct": 1014645481.1096191, "tolerance_pct": 5.0, "components": { "evapotranspiration_mm": 512.0988159179688, "evapotranspiration_pct": 164.30920232991986, "runoff_mm": 46.295780181884766, "runoff_pct": 14.854208751276058, "storage_change_mm": -0.016830474138259888, "storage_change_pct": -0.0054001331276946505 }, "pass_validation": false, "validation_note": "Using journal standard tolerance (5%) for physics-informed models" }, "ml_model_validation": { "hydro_simulator": { "ML-Hydro-runoff": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-runoff", "NSE": -45.49388122558594, "R2": 0.017155015841126442, "PBIAS": 61.04513931274414, "RMSE": 0.25339165329933167, "MAE": 0.2501572072505951, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-infiltration": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-infiltration", "NSE": -19.010356903076172, "R2": 0.01225708331912756, "PBIAS": 47.60072708129883, "RMSE": 0.12647399306297302, "MAE": 0.12290700525045395, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-percolation": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-percolation", "NSE": -59.65171813964844, "R2": 0.004920872859656811, "PBIAS": 70.82408142089844, "RMSE": 0.004236293025314808, "MAE": 0.004190468229353428, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-baseflow": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-baseflow", "NSE": -1.11881422996521, "R2": 9.362979653815273e-07, "PBIAS": 12.088866233825684, "RMSE": 0.00024684876552782953, "MAE": 0.00021687579283025116, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-reservoir": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-reservoir", "NSE": 0.006669223308563232, "R2": 0.04221423715353012, "PBIAS": -1.3855390548706055, "RMSE": 0.0037465316709131002, "MAE": 0.0024572270922362804, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-soil_storage": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-soil_storage", "NSE": -1410.536865234375, "R2": 0.050195928663015366, "PBIAS": 85.24425506591797, "RMSE": 0.032433196902275085, "MAE": 0.032239679247140884, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-aquifer": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-aquifer", "NSE": -14.918848037719727, "R2": 0.004392842762172222, "PBIAS": 26.9047908782959, "RMSE": 0.056383103132247925, "MAE": 0.05442161485552788, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML Model": { "model_name": "ML Model", "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0, "status": "PASS", "nse_interpretation": "VERY GOOD", "r2_interpretation": "EXCELLENT", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "Rational Method": { "model_name": "Rational Method", "NSE": -9251.363795633126, "R2": 0.14687764314570162, "PBIAS": 236.60493526514696, "RMSE": 3.66304582865918, "MAE": 2.312931808860659, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Curve Number": { "model_name": "Curve Number", "NSE": -316.51875847772385, "R2": 0.001270638030624127, "PBIAS": -96.05764853303401, "RMSE": 0.6785794381366356, "MAE": 0.6738899160691937, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Simple Balance": { "model_name": "Simple Balance", "NSE": -9980.208214086626, "R2": 0.05593247017904269, "PBIAS": 143.20731409664035, "RMSE": 3.804587350078826, "MAE": 2.0149896574484245, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Persistence": { "model_name": "Persistence", "NSE": -29.852508544921875, "R2": 0.04759080335497856, "PBIAS": -26.497013092041016, "RMSE": 0.21152476966381073, "MAE": 0.19466134905815125, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Moving Average": { "model_name": "Moving Average", "NSE": -23.380950278663683, "R2": 0.29788755324907745, "PBIAS": -26.078420997234158, "RMSE": 0.1880361351894224, "MAE": 0.1801971411908359, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" } } }, "validation_summary": { "total_components_validated": 7, "components_passed": 0, "components_marginal": 0, "components_failed": 7, "average_NSE": -221.53197350672312, "average_R2": 0.018733845270941987, "average_PBIAS": 43.58477129255022 }, "baseline_comparison": { "component_analyzed": "runoff", "baseline_methods": { "Rational Method": { "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)", "reference": "Classical rational method" }, "Curve Number": { "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75", "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service" }, "Simple Balance": { "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)", "reference": "Basic hydrological equation" }, "Persistence": { "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)", "reference": "Time series baseline" }, "Moving Average": { "description": "7-day moving average", "reference": "Statistical baseline" } }, "comparison_results": { "runoff": { "detailed_metrics": { "ML Model": { "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0 }, "Rational Method": { "NSE": -9251.363795633126, "R2": 0.14687764314570162, "PBIAS": 236.60493526514696, "RMSE": 3.66304582865918, "MAE": 2.312931808860659 }, "Curve Number": { "NSE": -316.51875847772385, "R2": 0.001270638030624127, "PBIAS": -96.05764853303401, "RMSE": 0.6785794381366356, "MAE": 0.6738899160691937 }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE": -9980.208214086626, "R2": 0.05593247017904269, "PBIAS": 143.20731409664035, "RMSE": 3.804587350078826, "MAE": 2.0149896574484245 }, "Persistence": { "NSE": -29.852508544921875, "R2": 0.04759080335497856, "PBIAS": -26.497013092041016, "RMSE": 0.21152476966381073, "MAE": 0.19466134905815125 }, "Moving Average": { "NSE": -23.380950278663683, "R2": 0.29788755324907745, "PBIAS": -26.078420997234158, "RMSE": 0.1880361351894224, "MAE": 0.1801971411908359 } }, "improvements": { "Rational Method": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Curve Number": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Persistence": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Moving Average": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" } }, "average_improvement": null } }, "validation_criteria": { "NSE_threshold": 0.5, "R2_threshold": 0.6, "PBIAS_threshold": 25, "reference": "Muletationa (2012)" }, "conclusion": { "status": "INCONCLUSIVE", "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics" } } }