{
    "component_analyzed": "runoff",
    "baseline_methods": {
        "Rational Method": {
            "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)",
            "reference": "Classical rational method"
        },
        "Curve Number": {
            "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75",
            "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service"
        },
        "Simple Balance": {
            "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)",
            "reference": "Basic hydrological equation"
        },
        "Persistence": {
            "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)",
            "reference": "Time series baseline"
        },
        "Moving Average": {
            "description": "7-day moving average",
            "reference": "Statistical baseline"
        }
    },
    "comparison_results": {
        "runoff": {
            "detailed_metrics": {
                "ML Model": {
                    "NSE": 1.0,
                    "R2": 1.0,
                    "PBIAS": 0.0,
                    "RMSE": 0.0,
                    "MAE": 0.0
                },
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE": -24.078655787035334,
                    "R2": 0.16418275524666884,
                    "PBIAS": 15.680675304301362,
                    "RMSE": 5.162514600063566,
                    "MAE": 4.047772583388255
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE": -9.286602883984244,
                    "R2": 0.012671904905122317,
                    "PBIAS": -94.50752886181726,
                    "RMSE": 3.306322043846462,
                    "MAE": 3.0831666747595325
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE": -57.70709530434657,
                    "R2": 0.09761511832247902,
                    "PBIAS": 34.58850119832313,
                    "RMSE": 7.898678954114977,
                    "MAE": 5.37187336842848
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE": -3.250154972076416,
                    "R2": 0.2644636631011963,
                    "PBIAS": -11.467949867248535,
                    "RMSE": 2.1252574920654297,
                    "MAE": 1.9109123945236206
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE": -0.5810403113651044,
                    "R2": 0.5354517697638295,
                    "PBIAS": -11.456653698717421,
                    "RMSE": 1.2962257276924498,
                    "MAE": 1.0801512799422244
                }
            },
            "improvements": {
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                }
            },
            "average_improvement": null
        }
    },
    "validation_criteria": {
        "NSE_threshold": 0.5,
        "R2_threshold": 0.6,
        "PBIAS_threshold": 25,
        "reference": "Muletationa (2012)"
    },
    "conclusion": {
        "status": "INCONCLUSIVE",
        "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics"
    }
}