{ "water_balance_validation": { "total_input_mm": 28983.82271712027, "total_output_mm": 37347.671875, "total_residual_mm": -8363.84915787973, "residual_pct": -28.85695665306199, "mean_daily_error_pct": -397028983.02720904, "max_daily_error_pct": 1493173122.4060059, "tolerance_pct": 5.0, "components": { "evapotranspiration_mm": 24819.1875, "evapotranspiration_pct": 85.63117343848405, "runoff_mm": 12527.5126953125, "runoff_pct": 43.2224307248219, "storage_change_mm": 0.97137451171875, "storage_change_pct": 0.003351436838402185 }, "pass_validation": false, "validation_note": "Using journal standard tolerance (5%) for physics-informed models" }, "ml_model_validation": { "hydro_simulator": { "ML-Hydro-runoff": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-runoff", "NSE": 0.1580989956855774, "R2": 0.16087029874324799, "PBIAS": 5.110991477966309, "RMSE": 2.2134792804718018, "MAE": 1.990763783454895, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-infiltration": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-infiltration", "NSE": 0.14233720302581787, "R2": 0.18617433309555054, "PBIAS": 8.233026504516602, "RMSE": 0.1288352757692337, "MAE": 0.11092448234558105, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-percolation": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-percolation", "NSE": -4.2604756355285645, "R2": 0.1261032223701477, "PBIAS": 172.99618530273438, "RMSE": 0.7002980709075928, "MAE": 0.6108725070953369, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-baseflow": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-baseflow", "NSE": -3.850515365600586, "R2": 0.19740591943264008, "PBIAS": 165.89527893066406, "RMSE": 0.07321279495954514, "MAE": 0.06171439588069916, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-reservoir": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-reservoir", "NSE": -3.1444387435913086, "R2": 0.10053335130214691, "PBIAS": -3.0135345458984375, "RMSE": 1.2293994426727295, "MAE": 1.0873693227767944, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-soil_storage": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-soil_storage", "NSE": 0.17643380165100098, "R2": 0.20043055713176727, "PBIAS": 8.949176788330078, "RMSE": 6.809807382524014e-05, "MAE": 6.138236494734883e-05, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-aquifer": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-aquifer", "NSE": -2.515745162963867, "R2": 0.04378372058272362, "PBIAS": -3.0333139896392822, "RMSE": 12.732171058654785, "MAE": 11.749961853027344, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML Model": { "model_name": "ML Model", "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0, "status": "PASS", "nse_interpretation": "VERY GOOD", "r2_interpretation": "EXCELLENT", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "Rational Method": { "model_name": "Rational Method", "NSE": -24.078655787035334, "R2": 0.16418275524666884, "PBIAS": 15.680675304301362, "RMSE": 5.162514600063566, "MAE": 4.047772583388255, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "SATISFACTORY" }, "Curve Number": { "model_name": "Curve Number", "NSE": -9.286602883984244, "R2": 0.012671904905122317, "PBIAS": -94.50752886181726, "RMSE": 3.306322043846462, "MAE": 3.0831666747595325, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Simple Balance": { "model_name": "Simple Balance", "NSE": -57.70709530434657, "R2": 0.09761511832247902, "PBIAS": 34.58850119832313, "RMSE": 7.898678954114977, "MAE": 5.37187336842848, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Persistence": { "model_name": "Persistence", "NSE": -3.250154972076416, "R2": 0.2644636631011963, "PBIAS": -11.467949867248535, "RMSE": 2.1252574920654297, "MAE": 1.9109123945236206, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "GOOD" }, "Moving Average": { "model_name": "Moving Average", "NSE": -0.5810403113651044, "R2": 0.5354517697638295, "PBIAS": -11.456653698717421, "RMSE": 1.2962257276924498, "MAE": 1.0801512799422244, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "GOOD" } } }, "validation_summary": { "total_components_validated": 7, "components_passed": 0, "components_marginal": 0, "components_failed": 7, "average_NSE": -1.8991864153317042, "average_R2": 0.14504305752260344, "average_PBIAS": 52.46164393424988 }, "baseline_comparison": { "component_analyzed": "runoff", "baseline_methods": { "Rational Method": { "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)", "reference": "Classical rational method" }, "Curve Number": { "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75", "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service" }, "Simple Balance": { "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)", "reference": "Basic hydrological equation" }, "Persistence": { "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)", "reference": "Time series baseline" }, "Moving Average": { "description": "7-day moving average", "reference": "Statistical baseline" } }, "comparison_results": { "runoff": { "detailed_metrics": { "ML Model": { "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0 }, "Rational Method": { "NSE": -24.078655787035334, "R2": 0.16418275524666884, "PBIAS": 15.680675304301362, "RMSE": 5.162514600063566, "MAE": 4.047772583388255 }, "Curve Number": { "NSE": -9.286602883984244, "R2": 0.012671904905122317, "PBIAS": -94.50752886181726, "RMSE": 3.306322043846462, "MAE": 3.0831666747595325 }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE": -57.70709530434657, "R2": 0.09761511832247902, "PBIAS": 34.58850119832313, "RMSE": 7.898678954114977, "MAE": 5.37187336842848 }, "Persistence": { "NSE": -3.250154972076416, "R2": 0.2644636631011963, "PBIAS": -11.467949867248535, "RMSE": 2.1252574920654297, "MAE": 1.9109123945236206 }, "Moving Average": { "NSE": -0.5810403113651044, "R2": 0.5354517697638295, "PBIAS": -11.456653698717421, "RMSE": 1.2962257276924498, "MAE": 1.0801512799422244 } }, "improvements": { "Rational Method": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Curve Number": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Persistence": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Moving Average": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" } }, "average_improvement": null } }, "validation_criteria": { "NSE_threshold": 0.5, "R2_threshold": 0.6, "PBIAS_threshold": 25, "reference": "Muletationa (2012)" }, "conclusion": { "status": "INCONCLUSIVE", "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics" } } }