{
    "component_analyzed": "runoff",
    "baseline_methods": {
        "Rational Method": {
            "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)",
            "reference": "Classical rational method"
        },
        "Curve Number": {
            "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75",
            "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service"
        },
        "Simple Balance": {
            "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)",
            "reference": "Basic hydrological equation"
        },
        "Persistence": {
            "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)",
            "reference": "Time series baseline"
        },
        "Moving Average": {
            "description": "7-day moving average",
            "reference": "Statistical baseline"
        }
    },
    "comparison_results": {
        "runoff": {
            "detailed_metrics": {
                "ML Model": {
                    "NSE": 1.0,
                    "R2": 1.0,
                    "PBIAS": 0.0,
                    "RMSE": 0.0,
                    "MAE": 0.0
                },
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE": -2485.1138660982406,
                    "R2": 0.1546262523867225,
                    "PBIAS": 89.8847025076698,
                    "RMSE": 5.473273677690604,
                    "MAE": 4.101378548064664
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE": -323.1499684327568,
                    "R2": 0.03745292411296227,
                    "PBIAS": -90.44142661179009,
                    "RMSE": 1.9763308432603746,
                    "MAE": 1.9422418433592983
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE": -4795.194526668371,
                    "R2": 0.09755886309958049,
                    "PBIAS": 110.37691369546054,
                    "RMSE": 7.602125785119253,
                    "MAE": 4.904182470480623
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE": -14.511346817016602,
                    "R2": 0.18313898146152496,
                    "PBIAS": 7.132828235626221,
                    "RMSE": 0.4323260486125946,
                    "MAE": 0.35369524359703064
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE": -4.606021193622206,
                    "R2": 0.5619139698111274,
                    "PBIAS": 8.150178709672778,
                    "RMSE": 0.25990463482689236,
                    "MAE": 0.21310572673695138
                }
            },
            "improvements": {
                "Rational Method": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Curve Number": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Simple Balance": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Persistence": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                },
                "Moving Average": {
                    "NSE_improvement_%": null,
                    "R2_improvement_%": null,
                    "note": "Baseline model failed validation"
                }
            },
            "average_improvement": null
        }
    },
    "validation_criteria": {
        "NSE_threshold": 0.5,
        "R2_threshold": 0.6,
        "PBIAS_threshold": 25,
        "reference": "Muletationa (2012)"
    },
    "conclusion": {
        "status": "INCONCLUSIVE",
        "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics"
    }
}