{ "water_balance_validation": { "total_input_mm": 914.9195433779679, "total_output_mm": 1145.114501953125, "total_residual_mm": -230.1948365048446, "residual_pct": -25.16011797659758, "mean_daily_error_pct": -482671792.1494826, "max_daily_error_pct": 1153616428.3752441, "tolerance_pct": 5.0, "components": { "evapotranspiration_mm": 903.9685668945312, "evapotranspiration_pct": 98.80306672180107, "runoff_mm": 240.91448974609375, "runoff_pct": 26.331767802949656, "storage_change_mm": 0.2313823699951172, "storage_change_pct": 0.025289914470602737 }, "pass_validation": false, "validation_note": "Using journal standard tolerance (5%) for physics-informed models" }, "ml_model_validation": { "hydro_simulator": { "ML-Hydro-runoff": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-runoff", "NSE": 0.1614120602607727, "R2": 0.44075697660446167, "PBIAS": -0.23237374424934387, "RMSE": 0.5286920666694641, "MAE": 0.4673236310482025, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-infiltration": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-infiltration", "NSE": -1.8877229690551758, "R2": 0.44515711069107056, "PBIAS": 36.33476257324219, "RMSE": 0.1226297914981842, "MAE": 0.1068105697631836, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-percolation": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-percolation", "NSE": 0.11569803953170776, "R2": 0.46852433681488037, "PBIAS": -5.771324634552002, "RMSE": 0.00528769101947546, "MAE": 0.0047608534805476665, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "ML-Hydro-baseflow": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-baseflow", "NSE": -1.2749061584472656, "R2": 0.4579480290412903, "PBIAS": 35.20133972167969, "RMSE": 0.0010598947992548347, "MAE": 0.0008904298883862793, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-reservoir": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-reservoir", "NSE": -3.4005627632141113, "R2": 0.3616847097873688, "PBIAS": -41.982444763183594, "RMSE": 3.0809521675109863, "MAE": 2.702636480331421, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-soil_storage": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-soil_storage", "NSE": -2.85127329826355, "R2": 0.30621713399887085, "PBIAS": -66.56298065185547, "RMSE": 0.04589051008224487, "MAE": 0.03939925506711006, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "ML-Hydro-aquifer": { "model_name": "ML-Hydro-aquifer", "NSE": -0.34267663955688477, "R2": 0.43829774856567383, "PBIAS": -14.146913528442383, "RMSE": 0.11584702134132385, "MAE": 0.1012495681643486, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "GOOD" }, "ML Model": { "model_name": "ML Model", "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0, "status": "PASS", "nse_interpretation": "VERY GOOD", "r2_interpretation": "EXCELLENT", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "Rational Method": { "model_name": "Rational Method", "NSE": -2485.1138660982406, "R2": 0.1546262523867225, "PBIAS": 89.8847025076698, "RMSE": 5.473273677690604, "MAE": 4.101378548064664, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Curve Number": { "model_name": "Curve Number", "NSE": -323.1499684327568, "R2": 0.03745292411296227, "PBIAS": -90.44142661179009, "RMSE": 1.9763308432603746, "MAE": 1.9422418433592983, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Simple Balance": { "model_name": "Simple Balance", "NSE": -4795.194526668371, "R2": 0.09755886309958049, "PBIAS": 110.37691369546054, "RMSE": 7.602125785119253, "MAE": 4.904182470480623, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY" }, "Persistence": { "model_name": "Persistence", "NSE": -14.511346817016602, "R2": 0.18313898146152496, "PBIAS": 7.132828235626221, "RMSE": 0.4323260486125946, "MAE": 0.35369524359703064, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" }, "Moving Average": { "model_name": "Moving Average", "NSE": -4.606021193622206, "R2": 0.5619139698111274, "PBIAS": 8.150178709672778, "RMSE": 0.25990463482689236, "MAE": 0.21310572673695138, "status": "FAIL", "nse_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "r2_interpretation": "UNSATISFACTORY", "pbias_interpretation": "VERY GOOD" } } }, "validation_summary": { "total_components_validated": 7, "components_passed": 0, "components_marginal": 0, "components_failed": 7, "average_NSE": -1.354290246963501, "average_R2": 0.41694086364337374, "average_PBIAS": 28.604591373886382 }, "baseline_comparison": { "component_analyzed": "runoff", "baseline_methods": { "Rational Method": { "description": "Q = C \u00d7 P, where C = 0.5 (mixed land use)", "reference": "Classical rational method" }, "Curve Number": { "description": "NRCS SCS-CN method, CN = 75", "reference": "USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service" }, "Simple Balance": { "description": "P - ET = R (simplified water balance)", "reference": "Basic hydrological equation" }, "Persistence": { "description": "Tomorrow = Today (naive forecast)", "reference": "Time series baseline" }, "Moving Average": { "description": "7-day moving average", "reference": "Statistical baseline" } }, "comparison_results": { "runoff": { "detailed_metrics": { "ML Model": { "NSE": 1.0, "R2": 1.0, "PBIAS": 0.0, "RMSE": 0.0, "MAE": 0.0 }, "Rational Method": { "NSE": -2485.1138660982406, "R2": 0.1546262523867225, "PBIAS": 89.8847025076698, "RMSE": 5.473273677690604, "MAE": 4.101378548064664 }, "Curve Number": { "NSE": -323.1499684327568, "R2": 0.03745292411296227, "PBIAS": -90.44142661179009, "RMSE": 1.9763308432603746, "MAE": 1.9422418433592983 }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE": -4795.194526668371, "R2": 0.09755886309958049, "PBIAS": 110.37691369546054, "RMSE": 7.602125785119253, "MAE": 4.904182470480623 }, "Persistence": { "NSE": -14.511346817016602, "R2": 0.18313898146152496, "PBIAS": 7.132828235626221, "RMSE": 0.4323260486125946, "MAE": 0.35369524359703064 }, "Moving Average": { "NSE": -4.606021193622206, "R2": 0.5619139698111274, "PBIAS": 8.150178709672778, "RMSE": 0.25990463482689236, "MAE": 0.21310572673695138 } }, "improvements": { "Rational Method": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Curve Number": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Simple Balance": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Persistence": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" }, "Moving Average": { "NSE_improvement_%": null, "R2_improvement_%": null, "note": "Baseline model failed validation" } }, "average_improvement": null } }, "validation_criteria": { "NSE_threshold": 0.5, "R2_threshold": 0.6, "PBIAS_threshold": 25, "reference": "Muletationa (2012)" }, "conclusion": { "status": "INCONCLUSIVE", "message": "Unable to calculate improvement metrics" } } }